𝗣𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗲𝘀, 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝘀: 𝗕𝗝𝗣'𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀

 

By Rahul Dixit 

(The Hitavada)

With the burgeoning wishlists of allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) streaming on media platforms ahead of the swearing-in ceremony of Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi in his third term at the Centre, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is waking up to the reality of managing an unpredictable coalition with a masterful balancing act. The situation is not new for the party which had led a coalition government under then Prime Minister late Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee. But this time, the task is totally different as it has come after two terms of absolute majority followed by a rude awakening of missing the magical figure. The pangs of running a coalition government are bound to make the BJP redraw its strategies and respect the mandate that has refused to give the party absolute power.

The election results have totally shattered the BJP’s dream of crossing the 400-seat mark in the 543-member Lok Sabha. The reverses have forced the ruling party to go into the lower house with 240 seats with the allies dragging it across the majority mark of 272. Now, with less dominance and reduced bargaining power it has to depend upon the demands of the allies, their whims and the dangers associated with coalition politics. The numbers game has thrown up a situation that will make the BJP draw out all its negotiation skills with the ‘kingmakers’ who are ready to have a bigger pie of the cake.

The NDA has a comfortable position of 292 seats in total which presently keeps the I.N.D.I Alliance at bay in staking claim to form government. The BJP is the largest party holding 240 seats but it cannot do without the support of alliance partners such as the Janata Dal (United) and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP). The JD(U) led by Mr. Nitish Kumar has 12 seats while the TDP, under Mr. Chandrababu Naidu, has 16 seats. This combine of 28 seats has handed the JD(U) and TDP a stronger bargaining power in the alliance which the BJP can ignore at its own peril. Other allies including the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) with five seats, Mr. Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena with seven seats, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and the Janata Dal (Secular) with two seats each also form important constituents of the NDA alliance and they walk in with their own expectations on ministerial berths.

The numbers in the coalition present every partner of the NDA an opportunity to leverage their position and make significant demands from the BJP. It throws up a new challenge for Mr. Modi whose control of government in the last two terms is well-documented as he never hesitated in taking tough decisions. That scenario was made possible by the large majority the BJP enjoyed in the House on its own and the party’s total faith in the Prime Minister’s plans and vision. This time the party will have to deal with unpredictable coalition partners who have had their differences with the BJP in the past. How the BJP, known for its knack of controlling alliance partners, handles the past issues and emerging threats would be keenly watched by the Opposition bloc which is waiting to snap the NDA allies.

Right from portfolio sharing to introduction of newer concepts of governance, the BJP cannot afford to leave the alliance partners out of the war-room. The party’s manifesto had promised implementation of key reforms like the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) and the ‘One Nation, One Election’ initiative. Other items on the agenda for the third term were stringent reforms regarding labour and land regulations. Without an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha now, and looking at the contrarian view of some partners on some of these reforms, the BJP might have to delay its plans. A “reformed” third term is on the anvil!