By Rahul Dixit
The little chain of islands forming Taiwan finds itself caught in the middle of tensions between two Big Bulls -- China and the United States. The Dragon is upset and furious over the visit of Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Ms. Nancy Pelosi to Taipei. It is raining down fire near the Taiwan straits thus raising the temperatures in the region while the US has been reiterating blanket support to the tiny island nation in face of invasion by the Chinese military. The tense situation is not new, given the acrimony both the top powers share over Taiwan’s sovereignty. The thing to look at from the perspective of larger geopolitics here is the timing of Ms. Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. It has come against the backdrop of heightened tensions between Beijing and Washington over various issues including China’s support to Russia in the invasion of Ukraine. The visit largely seems a tool to gauge the real intentions behind China’s bellicosity. The US is clearly testing the waters. Whether it will lead to a full-fledged conflict between the warring top economies is still a very complex issue.
Ms. Pelosi’s visit had already ratcheted up tensions in Beijing. The Speaker is a known critic of China and a solid backer of Taiwan’s independence despite the US acknowledging the ‘One China’ policy. It was Ms. Pelosi who had unfurled a banner in the Tiananmen Square in 1991 in support of the massacred students during an official visit to China during her early days in politics. In 2002, she had also tried to present letters to former Chinese President Mr. Hu Jintao (then vice president) seeking release of Chinese and Tibetan activists held as political prisoners. She later visited China seven years later and hand-delivered a letter to Mr. Jintao calling for the release of imprisoned activists. Her past record and the secrecy surrounding Ms. Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan had riled China even before the Congresswoman had set off from the US. Her visit has now taken the already-fraught ties between US and China to a new low. It was seen in the response by China’s fighter planes entering Taiwan’s airspace and the PLA Navy conducting dangerous drills in the self-ruled island’s vicinity.
The Chinese response was on expected lines. The only difference this time is higher scale of fighter jets and warships hovering near the Taiwanese territory. Beijing has always used the sorties to instill a sense of fear in Taipei leadership. Yet, it has stopped short of entering the island despite claiming it as an integral part of China. The Chinese military response can also be seen as a measure to test the US willingness to go full throttle to back the strategically important island nation. The United States does not have official diplomatic ties with Taiwan but is bound by the Taiwan Relations Act, 1979 to help the island defend itself. The US has been the biggest arms supplier to Taiwan despite officially considering it as a part of mainland China. This strategy of ‘deliberate ambiguity’ has been used by Washington to develop trade relationship and an opportunity to use the chain of islands as a place to leverage its position to counter China’s expansionist plans.
The issue is not just about Taiwan’s independence. It is laced with several dynamics hidden in the complex layers of geopolitics. Taiwan’s strategic location, its historic link with the Chinese Revolution, its place as the hub of semiconductor manufacturing and its innate desire to shed the Chinese influence are driving the big game of seeking control between a superpower and a wannabe superpower. These complexities do not have simple answers like starting a full-fledged military conflict. It would be interesting to see how things pan out once the temperature cools down and the world is diverted to other issues like the global economy and the imminent threat of recession. In the meanwhile, the international community needs to adopt the position of a ‘keen watcher’ like what India has done in the Taiwan conundrum.
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