Myanmar situation: A constant threat to North-East India

 

By Rahul Dixit 

Situation in neighbouring Myanmar continues to pose new dangers to India as regards organised crime, insurgency and illegal infiltration in the bordering States. After a fresh round of violence in the Chin province, hundreds of people from Myanmar have reportedly entered Mizoram, sounding a security alarm in the North-Eastern States. Though India has been steadfast in its position of engaging with the military Junta in Myanmar, the issue is far more critical for the policy planners in New Delhi with the growing shadow of China in the entire scheme of things. If things are not settled in Myanmar with fresh initiatives by the ASEAN and European democracies, India will be left to count a bigger damage in the N-E States.

Myanmar’s experiment with democracy was scuttled in February 2021 after the military ousted State Counsellor Ms Aung San Suu Kyi’s civilian government in a coup. After over 18 months, the Tatmadaw (the military) has taken full control of the country with a rule of terror. The world is witness to a mayhem in the little Asian nation as pro-democracy activists are facing wanton executions. Fresh violence, more cases on the arrested leaders including Ms Suu Kyi, and political killings have evaporated any hope of Myanmar returning to democratic ways in the near future. It can be called a collective failure of the world powers and agencies like the United Nations and ASEAN who had taken lead to open talks with the Junta but have hit a dead-end.

In such circumstances, with no light at the end of the tunnel, it is imperative for India to strengthen its security apparatus in the N-E before the Myanmar situation foments another uprising by China-backed insurgents. New Delhi has continued to engage with the Junta by aiding ministerial-level visits. External Affairs Minister Mr. S Jaishankar explained India’s position in clear terms telling the world that as a direct neighbour India could not avoid dealing with the military regime because of issues like organised crime, coronavirus and Indian insurgents in Myanmar.

While India continues to find a balance in border relationship and complexities of being an immediate neighbour, it needs to double up back-channel diplomacy for restoration of democracy in Myanmar. A State under a ruthless military regime is never a guarantee for a healthy security relationship. The Indian stakes in N-E States are too high.